Sunday, March 27, 2011

Government Confiscation of Retirement Accounts

Quantitative easing, i.e. money printing by the Federal Reserve, looks like it's set to continue forever, there being no other source of large amounts of money with which to fund the government's huge and growing deficits. But wait, maybe there is another source of funds: your retirement accounts. Gonzalo Lira makes a convincing case for the ease and plausibility of government confiscation of retirement accounts:
What pool of money is just sitting there, not doing much, while being legally barred from its owners? What pool of money is easily accessed, yet is large enough to fund the deficit?

The retirement accounts of the American people: Both individual private accounts, and pension funds.

After all, the total for all pension monies is roughly 100% of GDP (this includes Social Security). And the Federal government has already raided the “Social Security lock box”—that box is stuffed with Treasury IOU’s.

So the Federal government might well turn to the private sector for cash. The Federal government might conceivably claim that ongoing funding needs require that every single 401(k) and IRA divest from its portfolio of stocks and bonds, and be fully invested in Treasuries.

This could be accomplished very easily, from a practical standpoint—just inform banks, and have them turn over to the Federal government all your mutual funds and stocks you agonized over, and get long-term Treasury bonds of nominal equal value in exchange.

401(k)’s and IRA’s would be the first ones the Federal government would go after—for the obvious reason that union pension funds have the union’s political muscle. But individuals? They have no political machine. So they’re screwed. [...]

There might be short-term political damage, but like losing your virginity or carrying out state-sponsored torture programs, it would be the necessary start for a slide that will never end. After this first “retirement asset swap” carried out on the 401(k)’s and IRA’s, the Treasury department would start doing more of this to ever-bigger pension funds, until eventually all retirement assets would be converted into Treasury bonds.

Hey, they did it in Argentina. And as Yves Smith always sez, America has become Argentina, but with nukes.
I'm not so sure about the lack of political damage; it seems to me that a huge public outcry would ensue, which doesn't mean that it couldn't happen. The wealthy - and that means just about anyone who's been reasonably frugal and saved their money for retirement - are a huge target; the 51% of the population that has little money would love to get their hands on it, and the elite on Wall Street and in Washington will help them do so.

An article at Lew Rockwell's site recommends a number of actions to take for those who believe that this threat is real. For starters, stop contributing to your retirement account - that's an action I've already taken.

As if we didn't have enough to worry about, now we have to worry about America becoming another Argentina.

38 comments:

  1. There is not the slightest doubt that a decision has been taken - quietly, and without fanfare - to destroy the "store of value" function of the American dollar. All the government had to do was to decide on the requisite quorum within the financial services "industry" that had to be co-opted, and how to do it; this is now in place.

    The US government, first under Bush and then under Obarmy, have simply decided that the strictures of fiscal prudence were too chafing on their grandiose plans of, respectively, invade the world, invite the world; so they have just essentially decided to steal your $, and use it to irrevocably change the world, and America, according to their wishes. Or more accurately, the wishes of whomsoever it is that is manipulating them.

    And so not only retirees will be screwed; so will the bondholders. The Chinese for one will see it as an act of war; it certainly is an act of betrayal.

    But we will soon re-learn one very old lesson: don't get in between a Scotsman and his money. If anything can wake up the old WASP elite, it's this.

    Anon.

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  2. I've got an unpleasant feeling things are gonna get rather nasty in the coming years. Precious metals like gold, silver and brass and lead come to mind. A bit of LTSF food squirreled away isn't such a bad thing as are the necessary defensive items. This can be done inexpensively. Not a bad idea to get back in touch with that family member or friend who lives in a more rural area. Never hurts to stop by and help a bit with some of the work that needs to be done either.

    - Nobody

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  3. Ha, like the outcry over airport scanners or every other thing people dislike and have been impotent to change?

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  4. The government has been upping internal security and methods of control for quite a number of years now. Local police have been getting increasingly militarized what with swat teams, new robocop equipment, hyped up training, etc., all courtesy of the federal government. Add to that all the Homeland Security laws, snooping, spying, data collecting and who knows what else they're doing to supposedly "protect" us. One gets the uneasy feeling that over the years the government appears to have been getting ready, little by little, for something to happen out there, that the populace might get unruly. Behind this build-up there seems to be a mistrust of the citizenry, even as the people are losing trust in the government, seeing them more as rulers rather than as elected representatives. Everything seems to be in place to ram things down the throat of an unwilling public. The scenario outlined is plausible enough; it's probably somewhere on a list of available options ranked by gradations of risk and feasibility. It's happened elsewhere so let's not just dismiss it out of hand because it's too painful to contemplate.

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  5. They've already done this in Ireland and, it's my understanding, Hungary. The Irish government has tapped into the public pension funds of younger people in Ireland to "pay for" the national debt (i.e. bank bailouts) there. And now they're eyeing private pension funds, too.

    I'm sure all governments are thinking along the same lines.

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  6. It is not necessary for the government to go so far as to confiscate retirement accounts; just printing more money (i.e., QE ad infinitum) will eventually do the trick - the purchasing power of your account will have been reduced to nothing due to the government creating endless amounts of fiat money to fund its deficit.

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  7. ...no other source of large amounts of money with which to fund the government's huge and growing deficits.

    Exactly. And it's a hugely underreported aspect of QE. (I don't believe retirement accounts will be seized.)

    The same could be said for the coming crunch in entitlements, especially when combined with the demographic change that's occuring. America is filling up with poor, and poorly educated, Hispanics, whom we are supposed to believe are going to either 1) be able to create enough wealth, or 2) allow themselves to be taxed at a rate sufficient to fund SS and medicare benefits for tens of millions of mostly white, and significantly better off, retirees. Regarding the latter, why would they do it when all that need be done is change the law? Latest in a couple of generations Hispanics will outnumber Whites.

    It's pedal to the metal off a financial cliff.

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  8. I also think Argentina is a fair analogy for what is happening and especially for what lies in store; and it is true that retirement funds are a seemingly easy target. But, and it’s a big but, why anger savers when the current scam and related Ponzi schemes seem to be working so well. As per Keynes paraphrasing/quoting Lenin:

    “Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become 'profiteers,' who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
    Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

    One more time, “not one man in a million is able to diagnose.” O.K., maybe an overstatement, but just proposing to take over retirement accounts had a nasty reaction in Argentina, for example, but even Ben the Bernank has told us central banks like his don’t cause inflation (i.e., on 60 minutes he actually denied that there is a relationship between money supply and inflation – I am still mumbling to myself about that one). For my money, and like Argentina, I would worry more about indirect taxation through a debasement of the currency (inflation) than a government takeover of our retirement accounts. That is, while it is certainly possible, especially for an idiot like Barry Soetoro/Obumer/Whatever, to recommend taking over our retirement accounts I would be more worried about inflation and related tax effects than an outright direct takeover. Isn’t it much more politically effective to jack up inflation (all the while denying its existence) and let taxes and inflation do their work than admit directly that you are some kind of economic little shop of horrors?

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  9. In Argentina, retirement savings were not expropiated but loaned to the Government to put them to work for good of the country. People has such faith in the Argentine government that there were no protests nor demonstrations. No one is worried in Argentina, as everybody knows, God is Argentine and cares for the country. I read it in "Clarin" after the Government allowed it to re-open. I am sure other papers would write the same thing if allowed to publish.

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  10. Well, they have other mechanisms as well.

    Steve Sailor writes about the latest Census and of course the Diversity Police's action against Marin County ... which while it looks like comeuppance for Marin County is also how the Elites keep the rest of us under control over the long term.

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  11. The thing is, the US Government doesn't need to take such an action, because it can print money (and already is). Ireland is in a different situation, being linked to the Euro. By using inflation rather than direct seizure, USG gains the following advantages:
    - it's not obvious to Joe Schmoe exactly what is happening (i.e. how theft is taking place); inflation can be portrayed as some disaster that just happened as a result of economic conditions
    - there is still a good place for the well-informed to preserve value (stocks, possibly precious metals, land); dollar and bondholders are the big losers
    - they can reduce the real value various obligations such as social security payouts by massaging the official inflation figures
    - a large portion of the losses will be borne overseas, e.g. by the Chinese and other major holders of dollars

    Most of these advantages are lost if they resort to direct seizure of accounts; I conclude that they aren't likely to do it.

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  12. American "exceptionalism" has run its course.

    Today, we are different but not that different from the Latin American countries we used to feel smugly superior to, the ones with currency panics, overweening police powers, extreme class divisions, and political fanaticism.

    My guess is that although the U.S. government would not draw the line at nationalizing savings and retirement accounts if it felt pushed, it will first try inflation stopping just short of hyperinflation -- a "stealth tax" that many people will accept as normal.

    That at least gives the rest of us time to figure out how best to safeguard assets.

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  13. Check out this video:

    UCLA professor Kent Wong slams racism, derides 'old white men' in congress

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGLuTQXq0QA&feature=player_embedded

    I know you did a post about this already, but you have to see the video to appreciate it. The crowd goes hysterical when he mentions replacing "old white men".

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  14. Fortunately, I live in absolute monarchy in the Middle East where the goverment regularly increases benefits for it citizens.

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  15. I read the linked materials and I still don't quite get what exactly form this confiscation will/can take. Reference to Argentina is not helping.

    Can someone please explain? Is this a metaphor for devaluing the accounts by inflationary policies? Or is someone literally saying that outright expropriation of private holdings took place in Argentina and Ireland? Kinda hard to believe.

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  16. Regarding the police state. I'm in the Midwest/South. I am trained by and with various law enforcement officers in weapons and martial arts influenced street self defense. All of the officers I've trained with are white, save for one F.B.I. (f'n Big Indian, that would be a feather Indian, the real kind). BTW, I am not in law enforcement at all. These men I have met are the key. I don't think they will fire on other middle class whites, like myself. I think they will join us. They will be the cornerstone to whomever will win the fight. And there is a fight coming.

    The AA hired cops and whatnot will fire on us and gladly, I suspect.

    Regarding retirement accounts, if you think ROTH IRA distributions will be "tax free" in the coming years, you deserve to eat cat food.

    MDR

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  17. bbartlog said: "Ireland is in a different situation, being linked to the Euro."

    Well, yes and no. The Irish central bank is also printing Euros. Or it was back in Dec/Jan.

    Nanonymous said: "...outright expropriation of private holdings took place in Argentina and Ireland."

    I don't know about Argentina, but what happened in Ireland is that the government tapped into public retirement funds (like Social Security in the States). They haven't gone after private retirement accounts, but some Irish economists (for what they're worth!) are suggesting that the government is now looking at those as well.

    A quick note: the Irish government likes to do everything that the American one does, so we bailed out our banks, too. The country had a pretty bad national debt, but it was made much, much worse when the Irish people were forced to take on all the banks debts, too (which emanted from the Irish housing bubble -- which involved lots of loans given to people who couldn't afford them -- see, just like the U.S.!).

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  18. "I don't think they will fire on other middle class whites, like myself."

    I hope they don't. Then again, I remember Ruby Ridge and Waco, TX.

    "I think they will join us."

    I hope they do too. I don't want to trade fire with them, honestly, I'm a coward and I'd rather run. But if cornered, then there will be vicious resistance.

    "They will be the cornerstone to whomever will win the fight."

    So if they don't join whites, we're screwed?


    "And there is a fight coming."

    Hope for the best, plan for the worst. Civil War II is always a good read.

    - Nobody

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  19. "Or is someone literally saying that outright expropriation of private holdings took place in Argentina and Ireland? Kinda hard to believe."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/5504137/Argentina_seizes_pension_funds_to_pay_debts_Whos_next/

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  20. Sgt. Joe FridayMar 29, 2011 06:37 AM

    Rick Darby:

    "Today, we are different but not that different from the Latin American countries we used to feel smugly superior to, the ones with currency panics, overweening police powers, extreme class divisions, and political fanaticism."

    One small problem: those Latin countries, for all their class divisions have only one ethnic divide for the most part, white and mestizo/indigenous. We have many more factions with the potential for friction. Black vs. Mexican friction is already here, but suppose the government made a conscious effort to pit blacks and Mexicans and Muslims against whites...oops they already are.

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  21. Nanonymous: the explanation basically is that FedGov would force private pension and retirement accounts to be heavily loaded, perhaps 100%, with US Treasury bonds, aka "certificates of guaranteed confiscation". In Hungary, the government made retirement fund holders an offer they couldn't refuse: turn over your accounts, or lose the Hungarian equivalent of social security. France I believe is making noises about doing the same.

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  22. ...force private pension and retirement accounts to be heavily loaded, perhaps 100%, with US Treasury bonds,...

    Probably would not be necessary -- the "force" part. Believe it or not, the US is still seen as the safe haven. So if the markets crashed, no question you'd see a rush into Treasuries -- they could sell pretty much all the debt they wanted (and needed) to, and at very low rates.

    This blog has been advancing this thesis for a good while.

    Here is a blog post with a graph showing how the increasing size of the Fed's balance sheet is strongly correlated with the market's rise.

    Many people say, with good reason it seems, that the primary goal of QE to date has been to stimulate the 'wealth effect' by propping up the price of speculative assets, e.g. stocks.

    Given the long term unsustainability of QE, it would not be a complete surprise if the Fed and Treasury decided sooner rather than later to end it, allowing the markets to (finally) seek their own equilibrium, knowning any (widely expected) downturn would not be all bad.

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  23. "I don't think they will fire on other middle class whites, like myself."
    LE and the military will back whoever promises to protect their pensions.

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  24. In Hungary, the government made retirement fund holders an offer they couldn't refuse: turn over your accounts, or lose the Hungarian equivalent of social security.

    I still have a link on an article from November 2010:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2010-11-25/hungary-follows-argentina-in-pension-fund-ultimatum-nightmare-for-some.html

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  25. The four doormen of the apocalypseMar 29, 2011 10:39 AM


    "I don't think they will fire on other middle class whites, like myself."
    LE and the military will back whoever promises to protect their pensions.


    And experience in Constantinople at the fall of the Ottoman Empire suggests that LE and the military will become bandits to support themselves if no one promises to protect their pensions.

    Indeed, it has pretty much always been this way, hasn't it.

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  26. Regarding the loyalty of law enforcement and the military, I'm sure they themselves are spied upon by others so that the government would have names of those who might be unreliable (from their point of view) and those who would just follow whatever orders came down. Splits in loyalties have occurred in other countries so there are experiences out there to draw upon in strengthening one faction and ousting or crushing the other.

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  27. Well, there are bandits and there are bandits. With a reasonably wise leader, a given military unit will collect reasonable (property-based) taxes on a given area, maintain strict law & order (and property rights, though not in the absolute-libertarian sense that would forbid property tax), and encourage maximal economic activity to drive property values up.

    This is more likely if said military unit is composed of married men whose wives and children live in the area in question. No one wants to be a bandit in one's family's territory if there are other options.

    You can call it anarcho-capitalism, but since I had steaks with Mencius Moldbug once I prefer to call it "serendipitous neo-cameralism".

    The rosy scenario described above strikes me as barely plausible, although not particularly likely since a certain peacenik anti-war pacifist practically-the-Mahatma President has kept so many of our good troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. If it hits the fan I don't know if those guys are getting home.

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  28. The rosy scenario described above strikes me as barely plausible, although not particularly likely since a certain peacenik anti-war pacifist practically-the-Mahatma President has kept so many of our good troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. If it hits the fan I don't know if those guys are getting home.

    This is something all the practitioners of the New Imperialism need to consider. As the Meso-American death cults and criminal gangs expand northward, what good will it do us to have all our crack troops wandering around the Middle East? Or is that precisely the point?

    Anyhoo, I hope our Grand Strategic New Imperialist thinkers are pondering this.

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  29. The four doormen of the apocalypseMar 30, 2011 09:17 AM

    Over at Sailer's he worries about the Administration dumbing down education by removing Bush's No Child Left Behind requirements.

    Personally, I don't worry too much because certain groups were never going to become rocket surgeons anyway.

    However, movements to make it easier for NAMs to get into the military would be concerning. That would mean that certain groups are trying to stack the services with their people so that when Civil War II comes they have access to some hardware.

    Of course, given what we see daily these days in the ME, they might not be able to use that hardware all that effectively.

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  30. The four doormen of the apocalypseMar 30, 2011 09:22 AM


    Anyhoo, I hope our Grand Strategic New Imperialist thinkers are pondering this.


    The elites always think they will be fine.

    The French Revolution and the Russian Revolution suggests that they are wrong.

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  31. "LE and the military will back whoever promises to protect their pensions."

    I was not referring to the fat slob cops that could not run around the block if their life depended on it nor shoot a broad side of a barn nor the pschos that happen to get a badge. I am referring to the real LE's of the world, white Christian family men, that train to fight and live. Trust me, the men I am referring to are men you definitely want on your side. Their numbers are small but they are the ones you want. The pension suckers are deadmeat in a real fight anyway, let the Obamas of the world have them. That's like going to war with Oprah watchers.

    Last these men are not blind and stupid. Besides, how many promises does it take to feed a man and his family? Remember that is all those f'n pensions are - promises - from politicians.

    MDR

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  32. Last comment, and Mr. Mangan I do not know if this offends your posting policy, if so I am sure this comment will not see the light of day. So here goes.

    Google the following: TDSA

    God Bless,

    MDR

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  33. @ Anti-gnostic

    OF course they have thought of this... the troops over there will probably be hung out to dry if not deliberately sabotaged (as if they haven't been already). The loyal (to USG) troops are already accustomed to urban combat and to considering everyone they see hostile and dangerous.

    @ four doormen

    Some elites are always fine, Robespierre was no peasant last I checked. Doesn't Mencius always say that revolutions are fought between competing subgroups of elites?

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  34. If you want to be a bit more subtle about seizing 401K accounts, this is one way to do it:

    Basically, have the Feds mandate that 401K accounts have a mix of bonds and stocks that is most appropriate for a given age. Just like all of those Life cycle funds that have a stated target for retirement typically load up on bonds as workers near retirement.

    We can't have investors behaving suboptimally! Perish the thought! Just force them to have the proper percentage in Treasury bonds for their age, and all will be well...

    Of course, it is the workers approaching retirement that have large 401k nest-eggs who would most have to shift their holdings from stocks to Treasury bonds. Millennials? They can have a 80/20 split in favor of stocks, and who cares because they don't have much in the way of assets.

    It won't be a seizure of our 401k's...it will be a prudent policy to protect our investment savings...through the forced purchase of US Treasury bonds.

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  35. Higher taxes will work much better than confiscation.

    These are tax deferred accounts. We'll pay taxes on them when we cash them in.

    Either higher tax rates, or higher tax rates for IRA withdrawals will make some of us very sorry.

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  36. I don't believe that they would do this when the market is up as it would funnel trillions from equities and kill the market. They will have to wait until the market falls precipitously, then it will not hurt so bad for the wall street elite. keep an eye on the corporate buyers/sellers list and when the market dives, might want to think about getting as much out as possible. You have several months to put it back, but if they confiscate, then take the cash and pay the taxes/fees and keep it, if not, then put it back. That's my plan.

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